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Economic strain weakens Hezbollah support base in Lebanon, ITIC assessment finds

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Ongoing story
  • Hezbollah's support base in Lebanon is increasingly seeking ideological alternatives due to economic strain from the conflict with Israel, according to an ITIC assessment.
  • Some supporters desire a group loyal to Beirut that reduces Iranian control, though no real alternative has emerged.
  • Despite a recent ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah violated it, leading to Israeli strikes and civilian casualties, highlighting the ongoing instability.

Economic hardship stemming from Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict with Israel is causing a segment of its Shiite support base in Lebanon to look for ideological alternatives, an assessment by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC) found. Lebanon is still recovering from the costs of Hezbollah's October 8, 2023, attack on Israel, and confidence in the group's ability to manage the ongoing financial burden is diminishing.

Many Hezbollah supporters are reportedly seeking a political alternative that prioritizes loyalty to Beirut and aims to lessen Iran's influence over Lebanon. While these desires have not yet coalesced into a tangible opposition movement, the Forum of Shi'ite Lebanese, established in June 2025, has emerged as a potential future alternative. This group advocates for returning security, war, and peace powers to the Lebanese state, strengthening the Lebanese army, and fostering broad national partnership, while maintaining positive, non-subordinate relations with Iran.

Lebanon is currently in a "standstill," according to Dr. Moran Levavoni of the Institute for National Security Studies. This situation is complicated by Iran's recent diplomatic successes, which Hezbollah supporters celebrate as a victory for Tehran's patronage over Lebanon. Conversely, opponents strongly resist Iranian sovereignty. The Islamic Republic had expected a ceasefire on all fronts as part of its negotiations with the United States, which coincided with Beirut's own US-mediated negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah had threatened civil war over this course of action.

Jerusalem agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah on Friday, but the group quickly violated it with attacks on IDF troops in southern Lebanon on Friday and Saturday, resulting in one soldier killed and 13 injured. Israel responded with strikes on Hezbollah targets, which Lebanon's health ministry reported killed over 80 people. ITIC noted that civilians often bear the brunt of Hezbollah's actions. Between October 8, 2023, and November 27, 2024, over 3,700 people were killed, approximately 30% women and children, and nearly 900,000 were displaced.

We are in a sort of a standstill.

— Dr. Moran LevavoniExplaining the current political and security situation in Lebanon.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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