Editorial: The 2028 Race for Taiwan

The 2028 Taiwanese presidential election is already a subject of intense speculation, with the Kuomintang (KMT) party's potential contenders under scrutiny. Legislator Cheng Li-wen's recent remarks have seemingly brought Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an closer to the 2028 race. While former President Ma Ying-jeou benefited from a "good fate" in his political career, Chiang, at 47, is in his prime.

Recent events, including the "Ma Ying-jeou Foundation incident" and typhoons causing flooding in Taipei, have led some to question Chiang's effectiveness, drawing parallels to past leadership challenges. The article contrasts Chiang with other KMT figures like Han Kuo-yu, Lu Shiow-yen, and Cheng Li-wen, all of whom are seen as potential contenders. Lu was once considered the frontrunner, but Cheng's prominence has added complexity to the race.

The candidates' approaches to national defense and their engagement with both the U.S. and China are critical factors. Cheng's statements have drawn criticism in Washington while potentially appealing in Beijing. Han and Lu appear to be navigating a different path, seeking favor in Washington. Chiang's stance on defense spending is more measured, emphasizing legislative oversight.

Historically, Taiwanese presidential hopefuls have sought to build goodwill and undergo vetting in the U.S. Some now also include China in their itinerary. The article notes that while times are changing, both Washington and Beijing are actively seeking to influence Taiwan's political landscape. The dynamics between the U.S. and China in shaping Taiwan's elections are becoming increasingly direct, with Beijing reportedly experimenting with "Chinese-style democracy" in Taiwan.

The piece concludes that the competition for influence in Taiwan is intensifying, with Beijing seeking "useful idiots" among KMT figures who align with its goals. The upcoming years, including the 2028 election, promise to be eventful, with potential interactions between former U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping adding another layer of complexity.