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El Niño conditions begin, threatening weather extremes and record heat
🇬🇧 United Kingdom /Environment & Climate

El Niño conditions begin, threatening weather extremes and record heat

From BBC News · () English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Ongoing story
  • El Niño conditions have officially begun, according to US scientists, raising concerns about global weather extremes.
  • Forecasters suggest this El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, potentially leading to another record-hot year, likely in 2027.
  • The event, occurring on top of human-caused global warming, could disrupt weather patterns, food supplies, and economies worldwide.

US scientists have officially declared that El Niño conditions are now underway in the tropical Pacific, signaling a significant shift in global weather patterns. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the development after sea surface temperatures rose sharply in recent months, surpassing the 0.5C-above-average threshold used to define an El Niño event.

El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

— NOAAThe US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the development of El Niño conditions.

Forecasters are increasingly confident that this El Niño could develop into a "super" event, potentially ranking among the strongest ever recorded. Some models predict tropical Pacific temperatures could climb more than 3C above average by year's end. A strong event is defined as temperatures rising more than 1.5C above average, with very strong events exceeding 2C. NOAA's June outlook indicated a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño between November and January.

This natural weather phenomenon is occurring against the backdrop of decades of human-caused global warming. Experts warn that the combination could lead to another record-hot year, most likely in 2027, bringing widespread disruption to weather systems, food supplies, and economies. Professor Adam Scaife from the UK Met Office emphasized that the El Niño warming is "riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming," meaning actual temperatures could be unprecedented.

there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.

— NOAAThe agency's June outlook on the potential strength of the developing El Niño event.

While strong El Niño events do not guarantee specific impacts everywhere, they significantly increase the odds of expected outcomes. The shift from the cooler La Niña pattern, which ended late last year, to El Niño was anticipated, but the speed and potential strength of the current event have surprised researchers. The atmosphere is now responding to the warmer ocean, with winds above the equatorial Pacific beginning to shift.

The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming.

— Prof Adam ScaifeProf Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, commented on the combined impact of El Niño and global warming.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by BBC News in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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