El Niño could bring unseasonably warm autumn to Ireland

Ireland may experience an unseasonably warm autumn as the El Niño weather pattern intensifies globally, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The WMO stated that El Niño "continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns in the August-October season." This phenomenon is projected to cause above-normal temperatures and significant changes in rainfall across much of the world.

The assessment arrives as Europe grapples with devastating fires, extreme heatwaves, and prolonged droughts. Ireland itself has faced weeks of minimal rainfall, leading to an "extreme" fire risk in many rural areas. While the WMO anticipates southern Europe will be wetter than average and northern Europe drier, Ireland's outlook remains uncertain due to its location. A dry autumn could exacerbate existing problems for water supplies and agriculture.

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El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening ... Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. Expansion must stop. More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that climate change, fueled by fossil fuels, is making such events more deadly. "El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat," he stated, emphasizing that "this is only a warm-up act." He urged immediate action, warning that "unless we act ... the dangers will become deadlier still."

El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, is driven by warm Pacific Ocean waters and increases global temperatures for about a year. It exacerbates the warming already caused by human-induced climate change. In France and Spain, emergency services are battling fires that have destroyed villages and forests, though some heatwave conditions have eased.

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Unless we act ... the dangers will become deadlier still. The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event.