El Niño could impact 1.2 million Peruvians if intensity is extraordinary

Peru is bracing for a potentially severe El Niño event, with authorities working under the worst-case scenario that up to 1.2 million people could be affected. The National Civil Defense Institute (Indeci) is leading preparations for the climate phenomenon, which is forecast to bring strong to extraordinary intensity.

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The scenario most adverse with which Peru is working to prevent and mitigate the effects of the El Niño climatic phenomenon is 1.2 million people affected in case this event reaches an extraordinary magnitude in the coming months.

According to the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen), the event's effects are expected to be most intense from November through February 2027. El Niño, characterized by unusual warming in the East Tropical Pacific, typically causes torrential rains, river overflows, and mudslides, known locally as 'huaicos,' in Peru and Ecuador.

Indeci's chief, Luis Enrique Vásquez, stated that the priority is to clear riverbeds in high-risk regions and stockpile humanitarian aid, including food and essential goods. The projected impact of 1.2 million affected individuals is based on historical data from severe El Niño events in the 1980s and 1990s.

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The priority currently is to clean the riverbeds of the regions with the greatest risk of being affected, as well as to acquire sufficient humanitarian aid, both food and other essential goods, to distribute when the emergency occurs.

Vásquez highlighted critical areas like the Piura River, which has a history of overflowing during strong El Niño events, noting that its current "colmated" state is one of 536 identified critical points requiring urgent action. He also pointed out the challenge of populations settled on ravines that may not have been active in the past but could be triggered by increased rainfall.

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The problem is that we have population settled on ravines that perhaps had not been activated (with rains) before and that could now do so and be affected.

To manage the situation, Peru is equipped with early warning systems capable of sending alerts to mobile phones in specific geographic areas if river levels pose a threat. Material damages are estimated to exceed $3 billion, potentially impacting Peru's GDP by 0.8% to 1%.

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Material damages can reach a cost of more than 3 billion dollars, with an impact on Peru's gross domestic product (GDP) of between 0.8% and 1%, according to an estimate.