El Niño forming in Pacific could become the strongest in 70 years, threatening food supplies

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed the formation of an El Niño weather pattern in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters anticipate it could intensify in the latter half of 2026, potentially ranking among the strongest El Niño events observed since 1950.

The weather phenomenon is expected to bring significant climatic shifts globally. The Americas may experience excessive rainfall, while Asia could face hot and dry conditions. This poses a considerable threat to food supplies in Asia, a region already grappling with disrupted crop planting.

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Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific.

Scientists are increasingly concerned that climate change will amplify the impacts of this El Niño event. El Niño typically causes less rainfall and higher temperatures in certain regions, significantly affecting agricultural output. Australia, a major global exporter of wheat, sugar, and beef, is particularly vulnerable. The previous El Niño from 2023 to 2024 resulted in Australia's driest three-month period on record.

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Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.