El Niño Is Growing Before Our Eyes, Forecast to Become the Strongest Since 1950

El Niño is intensifying at an unprecedented pace, and every major forecasting model points toward a record-setting event. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects the climate pattern to reach its peak between late spring and summer in Australia, from the end of this year into early next year.

The agency measures El Niño strength through sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region. Its relative Niño 3.4 index adjusts for the average warming across tropical waters, allowing forecasters to estimate the strength of El Niño itself.

Felicity Gamble, a senior climatologist at the bureau, said the estimated monthly average for August was 2.2 to 2.3 degrees Celsius above normal. That marked the highest August reading since reliable records began in 1950. The speed of the rise also set a record: the index climbed more than 2 degrees between February and July, a six-month increase not seen in previous records.

Forecast models suggest the index could exceed 3 degrees above normal at its peak. The previous record was 2.6 degrees, recorded in January 1983. A higher index does not automatically mean that every region will experience proportionally worse heat, drought or wildfires. The bureau says impacts will depend on location, season and other ocean conditions, including those in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.

The WMO expects El Niño to strengthen further and reach very strong levels by the end of the year. It says the event is almost certain to continue through February 2027. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said, “El Niño is growing before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt. The planet has entered uncharted waters, and those waters are getting hotter.” The WMO describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon, though an unusually strong event can sharply shift rainfall and temperature patterns and increase the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat. Gamble said it was already affecting drought and shortages of food and drinking water in Papua New Guinea and contributing to major wildfires in Indonesia. The bureau also forecasts below-average rainfall in parts of southern and eastern Australia from September to November, above-average rainfall in the west, and warmer daytime temperatures in subtropical areas.

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El Niño is growing before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt. The planet has entered uncharted waters, and those waters are getting hotter.