El Niño’s fiercest episode of the century threatens Antioquia, with three critical warnings

Antioquia is facing a climate threat of historic intensity, according to technical assessments cited by El Tiempo. What began early in the year as a slight deviation in Pacific Ocean temperatures has grown into a danger already affecting residents, public services and ecosystems.

Reports from the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley, Empresas Públicas de Medellín and the University of Antioquia point to one of the most severe and rapidly developing ENSO events in the region in the past 70 years. The episode is challenging traditional climate forecasts and testing the resilience of water sources, the energy system and the region’s social structure.

Forecasts extend the drought cycle into the first months of 2027. The Medellín and Aburrá Valley Early Warning System, known as SIATA, estimates a probability above 90% that El Niño will reach “very strong” intensity between September 2026 and February 2027. Climate models also assign a 69% probability that the event will reach historic intensity, exceeding any continuous record since 1950.

Daniel Ruiz Carrascal, SIATA’s general coordinator, said the event would have immediate effects on daily life. The forecasts point to sharply higher solar exposure because of reduced cloud cover, rising near-surface air temperatures, severe losses of moisture in vegetation and soils, and a marked decline in accumulated rainfall.

The article identifies three serious warnings that authorities and experts want residents to heed. EPM is calling for critical water savings, while Medellín Mayor Federico Gutiérrez urged people to shorten showers, wash cars and motorcycles with a bucket, and water plants at night. The University of Antioquia has warned of institutional failures as the region prepares for the possibility of worsening conditions.

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very strong