El Niño strengthens before our eyes, threatening the world with new extremes

El Niño is strengthening, and forecasts give it an almost 100% chance of lasting at least until February. The World Meteorological Organization says the climate phenomenon will bring major disruptions to temperatures and rainfall around the world.

Scientists warn that the coming months could bring a higher risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat. Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific area critical to El Niño’s development are already well above average, with some locations more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual.

Conditions below the surface are even more striking. Temperatures there have reached as much as 8 degrees above normal, according to the report. El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years. When trade winds weaken, warm water accumulates in the tropical Pacific along the coast of South America, raising global temperatures and disrupting weather patterns.

“El Niño has the potential to deal a huge blow to communities and economies around the world,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned. She said effects including droughts and floods were already being felt.

New research also suggests that recent El Niño events have been unusually powerful. An analysis of coral from the Galápagos found that events over the past 40 years were nearly 40% stronger than those recorded during the preceding 1,000 years. Scientists link that pattern to global warming.

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El Niño has the potential to deal a huge blow to communities and economies around the world.