El Niño threatens coffee, cocoa, and sugar harvests; products may become more expensive

The intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon is posing a significant threat to global agricultural production, particularly for coffee, cocoa, and sugar, with the World Meteorological Organization warning of its increasing strength through October. This has led to consistent price hikes for these commodities.

El Niño, a naturally occurring event that happens every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, typically drives up global temperatures. Its effects are geographically diverse, causing drought in regions like South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and Southern Africa, while bringing heavy rainfall to parts of South America and the United States.

For coffee, El Niño is particularly detrimental to robusta production. Vietnam and Indonesia, major producers, face reduced yields due to higher temperatures and lower rainfall starting mid-year. While Arabica coffee in Brazil might see initial benefits from warmer temperatures preventing frost, long-term drought and high temperatures in the fourth quarter could impact the 2027 harvest.

Cocoa production has been severely affected, with every strong El Niño episode in the past 55 years leading to reduced output. In West Africa, the primary cocoa-growing region, initial heavy rains made trees vulnerable to fungal disease. This was followed by extreme heat and dry winds in 2024, causing affected trees to shed their flowers. Consequently, cocoa prices nearly tripled in 2024, exceeding $12,000 per ton.

Sugar production is also impacted, as El Niño typically brings abundant rainfall to Brazil, potentially affecting harvests, while reducing precipitation in India and Thailand.

“

Drought in Vietnam and Indonesia could significantly reduce robusta coffee crop yields.