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El Niño Threatens Global Food Security Amidst Ongoing Conflicts
🇷🇸 Serbia /Conflict & Security

El Niño Threatens Global Food Security Amidst Ongoing Conflicts

From N1 Serbia · () Serbian

Translated from Serbian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Global food prices, already impacted by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, face a new threat from the El Niño weather phenomenon.
  • El Niño could cause droughts or floods in key agricultural regions, potentially reducing crop yields significantly.
  • Despite recent crises, global food prices remain lower than their 2022 peak due to a record grain harvest in the previous year.

The world is facing a potential "perfect storm" for food security, with the El Niño weather phenomenon emerging as a third major shock after conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. These earlier wars had already driven up food prices, but El Niño could exacerbate the situation by bringing severe weather events to crucial agricultural areas.

There is a 63 percent probability that this unusual weather phenomenon could be 'very strong' this year.

— NOAAAssessing the likelihood and potential intensity of El Niño.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has assessed a high probability of El Niño developing into a "very strong" event this year. This could lead to significant droughts or floods in regions vital for global food production. JP Morgan has warned that El Niño, combined with oil prices around $100 a barrel, could increase food prices by as much as 1.5 percent.

El Niño, combined with oil prices of $100 a barrel, could increase food prices by as much as 1.5 percent.

— JP MorganWarning about the potential economic impact of El Niño and oil prices.

Experts like Maksimo Torero, chief economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), are concerned about the "cumulative effect" of these crises. He specifically noted worries about El Niño's impact on the Indian monsoon, which is critical for rice cultivation. India, a major rice producer, has already experienced significantly less rainfall than usual in June. The FAO also identifies the Sahel region in Africa, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America's Dry Corridor as high-risk areas for drought due to El Niño.

We are very concerned about El Niño and the delay of the monsoon in India.

— Maksimo ToreroExpressing concern about the combined impact of El Niño and monsoon delays on food production.

Despite these looming threats, global food prices are currently about 20 percent lower than their peak in 2022. This is largely attributed to a record global grain harvest achieved last year, with farmers expanding cultivated areas and favorable weather conditions contributing to high yields. However, the confluence of ongoing conflicts and the potential impact of El Niño raises concerns about future food availability and affordability.

We are very concerned about El Niño and the delay of the monsoon in India.

— Maksimo ToreroExpressing concern about the combined impact of El Niño and monsoon delays on food production.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by N1 Serbia in Serbian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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