El Nino Threatens Global Weather: Drought, Flooding, and Heat Warnings Issued

A potentially powerful El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean could reshape global weather patterns in the coming weeks, with forecasters warning it might be among the strongest on record. "There’s real potential for the strongest El Nino event in 140 years," said Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany.

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There’s real potential for the strongest El Nino event in 140 years.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates El Nino conditions to emerge soon and persist at least through winter. Depending on its strength and duration, this climate phenomenon could lead to drought, flooding, heat waves, and disruptions in food and water supplies across multiple regions. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the world to treat it as an "urgent climate warning," stating, "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."

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The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.

El Nino is a natural climate pattern occurring every two to seven years. It begins when trade winds over the tropical Pacific weaken, causing warm water to accumulate. Although this warming occurs in a specific region, its effects are felt globally by altering the tropical atmosphere, which in turn influences weather patterns further away. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Director Gavin Schmidt described El Nino as "the first atmospheric domino to fall."

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By changing the tropical atmosphere, you can then change the atmosphere further away across the mid-latitudes, which is why we care about it so much, even though we're thousands and thousands of miles away potentially.

The impacts vary significantly by region. Some areas face increased drought risk, while others experience flooding. Parts of Central America, Asia, Africa, and Australia often become hotter and drier, leading to water shortages that affect agriculture, hydropower, and drinking water. Honduras, for instance, estimates that around 75 municipalities could face severe drought, with the capital, Tegucigalpa, already declaring a water emergency. Conversely, along parts of South America's Pacific coast, El Nino can bring torrential rainfall and destructive floods. These consequences can be long-lasting, contributing to crop failures and potentially trillions of dollars in economic losses, as seen during the 2015-2016 El Nino event which left millions needing food assistance.

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El Nino is the first atmospheric domino to fall.