El Niño to cause heatwaves and droughts, UN agency warns

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, has confirmed that the El Niño phenomenon is rapidly intensifying and is expected to evolve into a strong episode in the coming months. This intensification significantly raises the probability of extreme weather events and natural disasters globally. The WMO anticipates that most populated regions will experience temperatures above the seasonal average.

According to WMO data, the warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters will accelerate between July and September 2026, leading to a strong El Niño event with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C. This forecast points to increased rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Conversely, drier-than-usual conditions are expected in parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and much of Australia. Central America, the Caribbean, and northwestern South America may also see reduced precipitation, while the southwestern United States could experience a wetter period.

For Europe, the WMO predicts a climatic contrast, with higher chances of above-normal rainfall in the south and below-average precipitation in the north. The WMO highlighted that El Niño, a natural climate regulator that typically occurs every two to seven years, is being amplified by climate change. The previous El Niño episode, from 2023 to 2024, contributed to those years breaking global temperature records and was linked to severe droughts.

In response to these predictions, the WMO announced the mobilization of its entire system to bolster seasonal forecasts, early warning systems, and coordination efforts with governments, humanitarian agencies, and particularly vulnerable sectors like agriculture and health. The primary goal is to reduce the impact of these extreme weather events on populations and economies worldwide.