Erik de la Reguera: Macron Talks Nuclear Weapons, But What Will His Successor Do?

France’s offer to extend its nuclear deterrence to European partners could face a major test after next year’s presidential election. Four in 10 French people do not believe France should share its deterrent with countries such as Sweden, while Marine Le Pen is currently favored to win the vote.

Sweden and France have become close military allies in recent years. Sweden’s entry into NATO has contributed to that relationship, but so has France’s growing role in European defense under Emmanuel Macron. Uncertainty over US security guarantees, fueled by Donald Trump’s unpredictable conduct, including during the Greenland crisis, has led European governments, particularly in the Nordic region, to look more closely at the EU’s only nuclear-armed power.

In March, Macron proposed sharing France’s deterrence capability as part of a stronger European pillar within NATO. His doctrine, called “forward deterrence,” would allow nuclear-capable Rafale aircraft to be stationed in other countries, closer to Russia. France would retain complete control over when and how the weapons were used.

Nuclear weapons would not be stationed on Swedish territory in peacetime. Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson has said their deployment during a war cannot be ruled out. Sweden is one of eight countries that have begun discussions with France about cooperation on its nuclear weapons, alongside broader military cooperation that is also advancing.

If Sweden wanted it during a war, French Rafale aircraft carrying nuclear bombs could reach the country in six to eight hours. During his visit to Stockholm on Monday, Macron said Sweden’s purchase of four French frigates also had a direct connection to this nuclear dimension. He said the vessels would improve Sweden’s long-range air-defense capability at sea and against ballistic missiles, strengthening forward deterrence. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Sweden’s dialogue remains limited to information exchange and discussions about possible joint exercises.

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The frigates give Sweden increased long-range air-defense capability at sea and against ballistic missiles. This strengthens forward deterrence.