EU population to peak in 2029 before long-term decline

The population of the 27-member European Union is set to reach its highest point in 2029, with projections indicating a peak of 453.3 million people. Following this peak, the bloc is expected to experience a gradual but sustained decline in population over the coming decades.

According to a report released on Tuesday, the EU's population will fall to an estimated 398.8 million by the year 2100. This figure represents an 11.7 percent decrease from current levels and would bring the population back to what it was in the 1970s. This demographic shift is driven by Europeans living longer than ever before, a result of vastly improved healthcare and living conditions, coupled with declining birth rates.

The consequences of an aging citizenry present significant challenges for the EU. The Joint Research Centre, the EU executive's research arm, highlighted potential labor shortages, increased strain on public budgets, and pressure on care and education systems. By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents is projected to be aged 65 or older, a substantial increase from the current one in five.

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We are living longer, healthier lives than ever before - one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is reshaping our societies, our economies and our labour markets.

However, the report also points to potential economic opportunities arising from this demographic change, specifically the growth of the "silver economy", a market focused on goods and services for older citizens. EU Commissioner Dubravka Šuica acknowledged the demographic transformation, stating, "We are living longer, healthier lives than ever before - one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is reshaping our societies, our economies and our labour markets." She urged proactive measures, adding, "We must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity."

The EU is emphasizing the need to boost productivity and reduce unemployment to counteract the effects of a shrinking workforce. Currently, about 20 percent of working-age Europeans are not in the labor force, and approximately eight million young people are neither employed nor in education or training. While migration is seen as a potential factor to offset some demographic impacts, researchers suggest its effect on fully addressing the challenges of an aging population would be limited.

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We must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity.