EU's 2040 Plan: Carbon Price to Double, Romania Faces Climate Vulnerability

The European Union is preparing a significant reset of its economic model, with a package of measures expected to reshape the daily lives of European citizens. A high-ranking European Commission official revealed the strategic directions, emphasizing a major reform of the carbon market and an accelerated increase in the price of emission certificates, potentially doubling their current value.

The official also highlighted Romania's structural vulnerabilities to extreme climate phenomena. In the context of the war in Ukraine and global supply chain instability, the green transition is being reinterpreted in Brussels not just as a climate objective but also as a matter of national security and strategic autonomy. This includes ensuring defense capabilities are not hampered by reliance on imported fossil fuels and addressing the impacts of ongoing climate change.

A key legislative proposal is due on July 15, aiming to revise the Emissions Trading System (ETS) with an ambitious goal of reducing emissions by 90% by 2040. The expectation is that the price of carbon will significantly increase by the end of the next decade, potentially reaching 150-160 euros per ton from the current approximately 75 euros. While emissions will decrease, those that continue will become more costly, adhering to the ETS principle.

This system is designed to guide investment planning by anticipating rising carbon prices over the next ten years, thereby creating an economic incentive for decarbonization. The EU is also developing financing and support mechanisms for vulnerable states to manage this transition.