Europa League projection puts Dinamo just below the knockout line

Dinamo Zagreb could finish in the most painful position possible under the Europa League’s new format: 25th, one place below the knockout-phase cutoff.

A new projection by Football Meets Data gives Dinamo eight points from eight matches, with two wins, two draws and four defeats. That total would normally leave the Croatian club fighting for a playoff place, but the projected goal difference of minus three would place it behind Sturm Graz.

The Austrian side is also forecast to finish with eight points, but its minus-one goal difference would secure 24th place and the final playoff berth. Viktoria Plzeň would also collect eight points, while its minus-four goal difference would leave it below Dinamo. The projection therefore places Sturm and Dinamo directly on the dividing line between advancing and elimination.

Dinamo will meet Sturm Graz in the final round, hosting the Austrian team on January 28. Before then, the Zagreb club is projected to open its league phase away to Hapoel Beer-Sheva in Bucharest on September 16. It will then host Anderlecht and NEC Nijmegen, visit Sunderland, welcome Bayer Leverkusen and travel to Rennes. In January, Dinamo is scheduled to visit AZ Alkmaar before the decisive meeting with Sturm.

Football Meets Data projects Bayer Leverkusen to finish first with 21 points, while Sunderland is eighth on 16. Rennes is 13th with 15 points, AZ Alkmaar 15th with 14, Anderlecht 16th with 13 and NEC Nijmegen 21st with nine. Hapoel Beer-Sheva is projected to finish 32nd with four points. The outlet says this is not a traditional forecast based on thousands of full-tournament simulations, but a single projected outcome for the remaining matches. That makes results against direct rivals such as Anderlecht, NEC, AZ and Sturm especially important in the scenario.