Europe has long glimpsed a new political reality. Now it is here

Europe has spent years glimpsing a political shift on the horizon. The result in Saxony-Anhalt offered Brussels a first taste of the outcome its leaders fear most.

The Alternative for Germany won 44% of the vote in the German state, an unusually strong showing for the anti-immigration party. The result weakens Chancellor Friedrich Merz at home, where his popularity is already scraping the bottom, and could soon affect the European Union as its leaders prepare to make major and costly decisions.

Germany is the EU’s largest economy and most populous country. For that reason, the AfD’s victory is being read as a possible warning about the political year ahead. Four of the EU’s largest countries will hold elections in 2027. National-conservative parties are the main challengers to governments in France, Poland and Spain, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces pressure from Futuro Nazionale, a new party positioned to the right of her Brothers of Italy.

The immediate German test may not be over. Merz’s CDU fears another setback later this month in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, an AfD stronghold. If the AfD succeeds in forming a state government, it would be the first time since the Second World War that a far-right party had led a government in a German state.

Brussels is also watching France’s election next spring. If Marine Le Pen reaches the Élysée Palace, it would mark an even greater milestone for Europe’s national-conservative right. The choices made in these elections could shape the environment in which EU leaders seek to strengthen competitiveness, increase spending on defence and security, expand investment in technology and industry, and support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Those ambitions are tied to plans for an exceptionally large EU long-term budget. Such a budget will require compromises, and Brussels fears that Europe’s nationalist-conservative wave could make them harder to achieve. The article presents the pressure on the traditional German-French engine of European cooperation as part of that wider uncertainty.