European NATO members boost defense spending, eye self-reliance amid Trump uncertainty

A stronger Europe within a stronger NATO is the declared goal of the recent Ankara summit, where 32 allied ambassadors approved a final declaration aiming to reassure the United States and Donald Trump of Europe's commitment to defense spending. The summit seeks to demonstrate that European nations are on credible paths toward the 5% of GDP defense investment target.

Despite efforts to create a summit "Trump-proof," palpable apprehension surrounds the potential impact of the former U.S. president's policies. Some within NATO describe a scenario without U.S. backing as potentially "dangerous." The summit's choreography included a large defense industry forum in Ankara, showcasing billions in contracts and cooperation, intended to capture Trump's attention. A private dinner at the presidential palace hosted leaders, their spouses, and guests like Volodymyr Zelensky, while separate dinners involved foreign ministers with Gulf and Asian partners.

The main summit on Wednesday is designed to be concise, limiting risks. The future of the annual meeting itself is uncertain, with the 2027 edition in Tirana potentially in doubt as Albania has not yet met the 2% defense spending target. The core message of a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO stems from a deep-seated awareness that Europe might have to defend itself alone if Russia were to attack.

Germany is positioned to lead this new course, planning to reach 3.5% of its GDP on core defense by 2029, a significant budgetary effort. Poland is also seen as a rising security power on the continent, complementing traditional leaders like France and Britain. Italy, along with these nations, could form a core group, an "E5" format, potentially guiding this evolving NATO. Berlin reportedly seeks Italy's support to counterbalance France's influence.