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🇦🇺 Australia /Economy & Trade

Even where the population isn't booming, houses are in short supply

From ABC Australia · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Tasmania faces a housing shortage despite slowing population growth, projected to be the first Australian state in natural decline by 2028-29.
  • The state has more houses than needed based on average household size, but factors like vacant properties and short-stay accommodations reduce available stock.
  • A low rental vacancy rate and long public housing waitlists indicate an acute housing shortfall, leaving some residents in precarious living situations.

Tasmania is grappling with a severe housing shortage, a problem that persists even as the state's population growth slows. Projections suggest Tasmania could be the first Australian state to experience natural population decline by 2028-29, with deaths outnumbering births.

While the state's population grew by a mere 0.5% in the year to December 2025, the lowest in Australia, the housing market remains tight. Theoretically, Tasmania should have enough homes, with over 268,900 existing properties for its population of around 579,100. However, this calculation doesn't account for numerous vacant homes or the 4,719 properties used for short-stay rentals.

People want smaller houses, people are more likely to live by themselves or with a small family. So the existing stock doesn't really match the existing demands.

— Maria YanottiUTAS senior lecturer in economics Maria Yanotti explains the mismatch between housing stock and demand in Tasmania.

Economic factors also contribute to the mismatch. Senior economics lecturer Maria Yanotti notes that the average Tasmanian home has three to four bedrooms, while demand is shifting towards smaller houses as more people choose to live alone or in smaller family units. This mismatch between existing stock and current demand exacerbates the affordability crisis.

There is an acute shortfall of housing. A healthy housing market has 3 to 5 per cent rental vacancies.

— Tim ReardonTim Reardon, chief economist for the Housing Industry Association, describes the severity of Tasmania's housing supply issues.

The strain on the housing market is evident in the critically low rental vacancy rates: 0.6% in Hobart, 0.7% in Burnie, and 0.8% in Launceston in May. "A healthy housing market has 3 to 5 percent rental vacancies," stated Tim Reardon, chief economist for the Housing Industry Association, highlighting the "acute shortfall of housing."

For many, the situation is dire. Over 5,500 households are on the public housing waitlist, with priority applicants facing waits of up to two years. Em Simic, who has been waiting 18 months for public housing, shared her struggles, having recently lived in a backyard shed and then her car. "It's very hard to remain hopeful," she said, emphasizing how unstable accommodation hinders her ability to re-enter the workforce.

It's very hard to remain hopeful.

— Em SimicEm Simic, a public housing applicant, expresses her feelings about the long wait for stable accommodation.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by ABC Australia. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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