Ex-Mossad official: Turkey unlikely to risk military clash with Israel despite Erdogan's ambitions

A former head of Mossad's counterterrorism division, Oded Eilam, has assessed that a military confrontation between Israel and Turkey is highly improbable, even with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambitions for regional expansion. In an interview with 103FM, Eilam stated unequivocally that neither nation desires a military clash at present, as such an event would directly contradict Erdogan's strategic outlook and his multiyear plan for "creeping annexation" across the region, including in Libya, Somalia, Africa, and Gaza.

“

The answer is unequivocally no, for the simple reason that neither side is interested in a military confrontation, certainly not at the present time.

Eilam described Erdogan's strategy not as a nostalgic longing for the Ottoman era, but as an organized, long-term plan to gradually expand Turkish influence. He emphasized that Erdogan would not risk jeopardizing this strategy through a confrontation with Israel, which he identified as one of the region's most significant powers. Consequently, Eilam assessed the chances of a military confrontation as "extremely slim, virtually zero."

“

That is completely contrary to Erdogan's outlook and to his strategy of creeping annexation.

Furthermore, Eilam suggested that Israel acted appropriately by drawing a clear line with Turkey, particularly concerning the potential introduction of advanced systems that could disrupt Israeli Air Force operations towards Iran. He characterized Erdogan's approach as a "tango," involving calculated steps forward and backward, but acknowledged that the Turkish president recognizes Israeli power. Eilam also highlighted Erdogan's control over the refugee flow into Europe, a leverage point that secures substantial annual funding from European nations and serves U.S. interests by preventing a refugee crisis in Europe.

“

Erdogan is not going to jeopardize it through a confrontation with one of the greatest powers in the region, Israel, and therefore the chances of a military confrontation are extremely slim, virtually zero.