Ex-Ukrainian Army Chief Warns of Six Major Geopolitical Risks in Black Sea

The Black Sea remains a critical geopolitical flashpoint, with former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi highlighting six major vulnerabilities that could destabilize the region. Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine's ambassador to London, argues that Russia has strategically gained significant advantages in the basin, posing a direct challenge to European security.

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NATO tends to continue treating the Black Sea as a 'Russian lake,' tacitly allowing Moscow to expand its military capabilities.

In an analysis for Interfax-Ukraine, Zaluzhnyi criticized NATO for treating the Black Sea as a "Russian lake," allowing Moscow to expand its military capabilities. He believes this passive approach has emboldened Russia's expansionism in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. The former general is convinced that Moscow will exploit any imbalance to reassert its influence.

Zaluzhnyi also found the European Union's Black Sea strategy lacking. Despite ambitious declarations, he described the EU's strategy and its "White Paper 2030" as mere statements of intent with no practical application. This perceived lack of resolve, he contends, encourages Russian aggression. The proposed Black Sea Maritime Security Center has yet to materialize, leaving political resolve without effective mechanisms.

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The European Union presented a strategy dedicated to the Black Sea last year, with ambitious objectives, but Zaluzhnyi considers that in reality this document, like the 'White Paper 2030,' represents only an inapplicable declaration of intent.

A significant concern raised is the potential reopening of the Bosporus Strait to Russian warships. Turkey's decision to block military transit during the war limited Russia's naval operations. However, Zaluzhnyi warns that Russia could condition any ceasefire agreement on the reopening of the straits, a move that would significantly bolster its naval power in the region without a clear counter-strategy from NATO or the EU.

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The greatest risk is that Russia will condition the negotiations on the reopening of the straits to its military navy.