Expert: Several Pitfalls Despite Agreement

An agreement between Iran and the United States has been hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough, though experts caution that the path forward is fraught with challenges. Anders Persson, a political scientist at Linné University, views the deal as a way for both nations to claim victory: the U.S. for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran for resisting attacks without regime collapse. However, Persson identifies three significant "pitfalls" in the fragile process ahead.

The first major question is whether this agreement marks the beginning of something lasting or merely a pause in hostilities. Persson notes that while the U.S. has declared the deal complete, critical issues remain unresolved. The most contentious topic, Iran's nuclear program, has been deferred to the future, leaving a significant point of contention unaddressed.

“

The most difficult question, about Iran's nuclear technology, is just postponed to the future.

Furthermore, the agreement touches upon Israeli actions in Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah has faced repeated Israeli attacks. While the deal reportedly includes an end to fighting in Lebanon, the prospect of an Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories is uncertain. Israel has indicated it does not wish to withdraw, creating an immediate obstacle, and Lebanon is unlikely to accept a deal that does not mandate such a withdrawal.

Finally, Persson highlights the issue of adherence to the ceasefire. Both Israel and Lebanon, and previously Iran and the U.S., have entered into ceasefire agreements that were subsequently violated. The third "mine" concerns how much deviation the current ceasefire will tolerate. Past experiences show that conflicts can continue at a lower intensity even after a ceasefire is declared. The potential for renewed sporadic fighting remains a significant question mark.

“

The third mine is, how much deviation will this ceasefire tolerate? We have previously seen that fighting has continued, albeit in a more low-intensity manner.