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Expert: Trump Will Need to Manage Lebanon Amidst US-Iran Deal
🇰🇷 South Korea /Conflict & Security

Expert: Trump Will Need to Manage Lebanon Amidst US-Iran Deal

From Chosun Ilbo · () Korean

Translated from Korean, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • A US-Iran agreement to end the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, is reportedly in place.
  • Israel's participation and continued military actions in Lebanon raise questions about the ceasefire's viability.
  • The US, particularly under a potential Trump administration, may need to actively manage the Lebanon situation to ensure the agreement holds.

A potential agreement between the United States and Iran to end hostilities on all fronts, including the volatile situation in Lebanon, has been reported. However, Israel's position and ongoing military activities in southern Lebanon cast doubt on the immediate prospects for a lasting ceasefire.

It is difficult to have a ceasefire when Israel stands in the middle of Lebanon.

— Aron LundCommenting on the challenges of implementing a ceasefire in Lebanon amid ongoing Israeli military actions.

Middle East analyst Aron Lund notes that while an agreement may have been announced, Israel's participation is uncertain. "It is difficult to have a ceasefire when Israel stands in the middle of Lebanon," Lund stated. Despite the reported accord, Israeli artillery has continued to fire into Lebanon, and ultraconservative Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has asserted that Israel is not a party to the agreement.

Lund identifies the Lebanon issue as the most significant potential pitfall for the broader US-Iran deal. He suggests that for the agreement to hold, the US will need to dedicate considerable attention to managing Israel's actions. "If this is to hold, the US will need to spend time on Lebanon going forward," he said. Lund also points out that former President Donald Trump, if re-elected, might have strong incentives to ensure Israel complies, given his past investments in the relationship.

If this is to hold, the US will need to spend time on Lebanon going forward.

— Aron LundHighlighting the necessity of US engagement to ensure the stability of a potential US-Iran agreement concerning Lebanon.

However, Lund cautions that Trump has a history of declaring major victories that later unravel due to waning attention. "He seems to have the attention span of a five-year-old. He drifts from conflict to conflict, and as soon as he takes his eyes off something, things start to happen." While Lebanon may not be the top priority for either the US or Iran compared to issues like the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear energy, or sanctions, its instability poses the greatest risk to derailing the entire agreement.

He seems to have the attention span of a five-year-old. He drifts from conflict to conflict, and as soon as he takes his eyes off something, things start to happen.

— Aron LundDescribing Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy and potential impact on sustained agreements.

Adding to the complexity, Lund highlights the dire humanitarian situation in southern Lebanon, where a significant portion of the Shia Muslim population has been displaced from their homes. Israel's ongoing actions, including the demolition of destroyed homes within a self-declared "security zone" aimed at pushing back Hezbollah, create an unsustainable internal situation. Lund believes Hezbollah is unlikely to cease fighting under such circumstances, necessitating active crisis management by the US.

I cannot imagine that Hezbollah would stop fighting that type of Israeli presence.

— Aron LundAssessing the likelihood of Hezbollah ceasing hostilities given the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Chosun Ilbo in Korean. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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