Expert Warns U.S.-Iran Deal Faces Major Hurdles After Strait of Hormuz Closure Claim

Iran's assertion that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz has ignited fresh doubts regarding a fragile agreement with the United States, even as both nations prepare for further negotiations. Iran stated on Saturday that it had shut down the vital waterway in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and what it termed the U.S. failure to honor its commitments under their deal.

“

We’re nearly at the starting line. It’s going to be a long, fragile process.

The United States, however, has contested Iran's claim, asserting that Iran lacks control over the strait and that maritime commerce has proceeded without interruption. These developments occur as Iranian officials are en route to Switzerland for discussions that could potentially lead to a more comprehensive accord. U.S. Vice President JD Vance also departed for Switzerland on Saturday.

“

They couldn’t even agree on signing this agreement. I think this will be heavy lifting.

Former U.S. diplomat Alan Eyra voiced pessimism about achieving lasting peace, characterizing the situation as being "nearly at the starting line" and anticipating a "long, fragile process." He noted Israel's non-participation in the deal and its continued focus on combating Hezbollah and Iran. Security expert Christian Leuprecht echoed these sentiments, calling the situation "heavy lifting" and highlighting the fundamental disagreement over the scope of any potential deal, with the U.S. seeking a bilateral agreement and Iran aiming for a broader regional arrangement involving its proxies.

“

The United States wants a deal with Iran and Iran is trying to make this into a broader deal that includes its proxies in the region.

The ongoing conflict in Lebanon adds another layer of complexity. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon resulted in at least 16 fatalities on Saturday, while Israel reported that Hezbollah launched over 50 projectiles. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are signatories to the U.S.-Iran agreement. Leuprecht further observed that the conflict exposes challenges for the U.S. in achieving its strategic goals, particularly in the context of its pivot towards the Indo-Pacific to counter China. He suggested that Iran has significantly weakened the U.S. position, demonstrating to the world that even the formidable U.S. military cannot guarantee the attainment of its strategic objectives in the region.

“

This ceasefire is fragile. And as we’ve seen is coming and going routinely.