Experts dissect US-Iran deal: Wins for Tehran, challenges for Washington and Israel

The United States and Iran have reached an agreement on 14 points in a memorandum of understanding, which includes an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, notably in Lebanon. Experts Jan Hallenberg and Alexander Atarodi are analyzing the agreement point by point, assessing the implications for the involved parties.

“

It is a demand that Iran has had all along and that Trump has been unclear about. And Israel has, of course, been enormously against including this point. They have said that these are two different conflicts.

According to Hallenberg, the demand to end the war on all fronts is a long-standing Iranian requirement that has caused friction with Israel, which views the conflicts in Israel and Lebanon as separate. He views this as a significant success for Iran and a major setback for Israel, potentially creating problems for the U.S. Atarodi concurs, stating it signifies Iran's equal standing with the U.S. and its ability to influence the conclusion of conflicts, with the inclusion of the Israel-Lebanon war being a considerable advantage for Iran and a divisive issue for the U.S. concerning Israel.

Both parties commit to respecting each other's territorial integrity and refraining from interfering in internal affairs. Hallenberg sees this as a win for Iran, as it legally binds the U.S. to cease its past interventions. Atarodi agrees, emphasizing that this clause would legally obligate the U.S. to respect Iran's internal matters.

“

It is a big success for Iran. It means that Iran is on an equal footing and sits as a partner with the USA, the world's most powerful country, and dictates somewhat what should be ended or not.

The agreement sets a 60-day deadline for negotiating a final accord, with the possibility of extension if both sides consent. Hallenberg describes this as a standard negotiation clause, not a specific victory for either party. Atarodi, however, views it as beneficial for the U.S., offering a potential exit from the conflict and allowing for continued negotiations without immediate escalation back to war.

“

It is a success for Iran. If this becomes an agreement, the USA will legally bind itself not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and matters as it has done before.

A significant point involves the U.S. immediately lifting its naval blockade against Iran and ensuring full capacity for Iranian shipping within 30 days. Additionally, U.S. military forces are to withdraw from Iran's immediate vicinity within 30 days of a final agreement. Hallenberg notes that while Iran's commitment to opening the Strait of Hormuz is a plus, the U.S. commitment to relocating its forces is particularly remarkable, as it compels the superpower to adjust its military positioning.

“

It is the commitment for Iran to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is opened. An additional plus for Iran, however, is the last sentence, that the USA undertakes to move its forces. Here, a third-class military power, as one usually expresses it, makes the world's military superpower undertake to move its forces.