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🇳🇬 Nigeria /Economy & Trade

Experts See Naira Strengthening Below N1,000 Per Dollar Within a Year

From ThisDay · () English

Translated from English and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

Analysis Documents & data Context piece
  • MDU Capital estimates the naira’s fair value at N984.7 per dollar, below the reported parallel-market rate of N1,385.
  • Its models point to possible naira appreciation below N1,000 per dollar over the next 12 months, though the firm described the projection as a scenario rather than a guaranteed forecast.
  • The firm’s June 2027 convergence scenario puts the currency at N933 per dollar, alongside less favorable alternatives.

The naira could strengthen below N1,000 per dollar within the next 12 months if its market price moves closer to fundamental value, according to research from MDU Capital.

The firm estimated fair value at N984.7 per dollar as of June 2026. It said that figure stood 29% below the reported parallel-market rate of N1,385. MDU Capital said a repricing toward the estimated trend could take the exchange rate below N1,000 by mid-2027.

MZM fair-value estimate for the naira is N984.7/$1 (Jun-2026)

— MDU CapitalThe research firm’s estimate placed the naira below N1,000 per dollar.

The research used three valuation methods: a money-supply model, a forward-rate model and a blended approach. The money-supply model produced an estimate of about N987 per dollar, while the forward-rate model gave approximately N1,043. The blended model assigned 90% weight to the money-supply valuation and 10% to the forward-rate estimate, producing the N984.7 fair-value figure.

A re-rating toward this trend would place $/NGN below N1,000 by mid-2027

— MDU CapitalThe firm described how convergence toward its estimated value could affect the exchange rate.

MDU Capital said its money-supply measure uses the most liquid portion of broad monetary aggregates and that fair value falls when money-supply growth outpaces growth in external reserves. Its forward-rate model applies uncovered interest-rate parity, linking Nigerian and U.S. interest rates with the forward exchange rate.

For June 2027, the firm’s convergence scenario projected N933 per dollar, compared with a June 2026 spot rate of about N1,229 in its scenario analysis. It also listed a base case of N1,229 and a trend-continuation scenario of N1,027. MDU Capital described the convergence path as a house view based on scenarios, not a guaranteed forecast or investment recommendation.

scenario-based house view; not a guaranteed forecast or investment recommendation

— MDU CapitalThe firm qualified its 12-month currency projection.
About this summary

Originally published by ThisDay in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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