Fall movie season is here. Five early Oscar predictions

Fall movie season has arrived, and with it the annual Oscar guessing game. Campaigns began at Cannes in May, but the conversation has intensified as festivals in Venice and Telluride get underway and Toronto approaches.

Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” currently looks like the film to beat. Nolan followed “Oppenheimer” with a best-picture victory and his first directing Oscar, giving the new epic a powerful starting position. Still, the film does not appear to be as widely loved as “Oppenheimer,” and the Academy has often favored smaller movies in recent years. The prediction here is that “The Odyssey” will not finish as the best-picture favorite.

New York also figures prominently in the season’s early conversation. Jordan Firstman’s “Club Kid,” due Nov. 6, follows a gay clubgoer who discovers he has a child. James Gray’s “Paper Tiger,” scheduled for Nov. 13, is a Queens-set drama about family and mafia corruption in the 1980s. Other New York-focused titles include “The Only Living Pickpocket,” starring John Turturro as an aging thief, “Once Upon a Time in Harlem,” a documentary about a 1972 gathering of Harlem Renaissance figures, and “The History of Concrete,” John Wilson’s documentary about concrete and creativity.

John Malkovich may have his strongest Oscar chance yet in Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine.” The twice-nominated actor plays an aging CIA agent who has tired of keeping secrets during a trip to Easter Island in the early 1970s. The role is described as witty, soulful and profane, qualities associated with Malkovich’s most admired performances.

The early awards picture also includes the continuing impact of “Obsession.” Curry Barker’s “One Wish Willow” has already broken profitability records, and Focus Features is preparing a campaign that could place the low-budget horror film in major Oscar races, including best picture and best actress for Inde.