Far-right AfD claims historic German state election victory, exit polls show

The Alternative für Deutschland has won a historic state election in Germany, exit polls projected, but the party’s path to government remained uncertain as votes continued to be counted.

The populist, far-right and anti-immigration party secured 44.5% in the initial projections, far ahead of the Christian Democrats of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who stood at 18.5%. Die Linke was third on 9.5%, followed by the Greens on 9% and the Social Democrats on 8%. The smaller BSW cleared the 5% threshold needed to return to parliament, contrary to expectations.

The AfD appeared to have fallen short of an absolute majority. That threshold is central to the party’s stated position because it refuses to govern with another party. Its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has repeatedly said he would not become state premier without an outright majority, arguing that only such a result would allow the party to enact change effectively.

If confirmed, the result would mark the first time the AfD has won a state government and the first time since the Second World War that a rightwing extremist party has gained power at state or parliamentary level in Germany. The AfD branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as rightwing extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.

Turnout reached a record 76.5%. About 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the state, which has 2.1 million residents. The CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2021 with two smaller parties, while the CDU and other mainstream parties have rejected cooperation with the AfD under the policy known as the Brandmauer, or firewall.

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I would refuse to take over as state premier unless my party gained an absolute majority.