Federal budget: “For MR, an attack on VAT is unacceptable,” David Clarinval warns

David Clarinval knows what political isolation feels like. Under the Vivaldi government, the Reform Movement deputy prime minister blocked a tax reform proposed by CD&V and emerged exhausted from the fight. Now, as the De Wever government prepares for another round of tensions, he suspects the MR’s partners want to raise taxes.

The budget conclave officially begins on September 21, with the Arizona coalition required to find €10 billion. Clarinval says that effort should bring Belgium’s public deficit to around 4% of GDP in 2029, a target he describes as more ambitious than the budget path requested by the European Union.

He places the main blame for Belgium’s budget difficulties on public spending. National Bank figures cited in the interview show spending rising from 52.5% of GDP in 2022 to 54.1% in 2024, before stabilizing. Revenue remained broadly at the same level and even declined slightly. Clarinval says spending must therefore be the focus, especially because costs are set to keep rising.

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For the MR, an attack on VAT is unacceptable.

Healthcare spending illustrates the pressure. The health-insurance budget stood at €26 billion in 2019, is expected to reach €43 billion in 2026 and could rise to €49 billion by 2029 if spending continues growing at 3% annually. Clarinval calls those figures enormous. He also argues that Belgium is already among the OECD’s most heavily taxed countries, leaving little room for further increases. He says higher excise duties on tobacco or alcohol can even reduce revenue as consumers buy elsewhere.

The MR’s position on VAT is categorical. “An attack on VAT is unacceptable,” Clarinval says, because the party wants to defend purchasing power. He says the MR has blocked such increases before and will continue to do so.

Instead, the party plans to argue for growth and spending cuts. Clarinval cites National Bank projections of only 0.7% GDP growth in 2026 and says raising that rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.2%, could become part of the solution. He also points to unemployment reform, saying it could generate €1.6 billion in savings.

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The savings enabled by unemployment reform are enormous: €1.6 billion.