Fewer Homicides and the Shadow of Rocha Shape Sheinbaum’s Report

Claudia Sheinbaum will use her second government report to highlight a steep fall in Mexico’s daily homicide average, while addressing a difficult relationship with the United States and allegations involving former Sinaloa governor Rubén Rocha Moya.

The report, scheduled for Sept. 1 at the National Palace, will review the first 23 months of Sheinbaum’s administration and set priorities for her next year in office. The government’s main security measure is the reported decline in intentional homicides. Official figures put the daily average at 42.5 in July 2026, down from 86.9 in September 2024, a decrease of 51%.

July’s figure marked the lowest monthly average since 2015. Between January and July, Mexico recorded an average of 48.6 homicides a day, also the lowest for a comparable period since 2016. The administration attributes the change to its National Security Strategy, which focuses on addressing underlying causes, strengthening the National Guard, expanding intelligence and investigations, and improving coordination between federal and state authorities.

Federal forces have reported more than 63,000 arrests for serious crimes during the administration’s first months, along with weapons and drug seizures and operations against criminal groups. One of the most prominent operations took place on Feb. 22 against Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho and identified as the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

Relations with Washington remain another major challenge. Sheinbaum has kept communication channels open with Donald Trump’s government amid pressure over security, migration, drug trafficking and trade. She has also insisted that cooperation must not mean subordination. On Aug. 26, she said the two governments remained in constant communication and that Mexico would continue defending its principles.