Finance Ministry calculation shows decline in Denmark’s population of Danish origin

People of Danish origin would make up 68.9% of Denmark’s population in 2100 if net migration continues unchanged, according to a Finance Ministry scenario calculation reported by Berlingske. The figure compares with 83.2% today.

The calculation also projects that non-Western immigrants would increase their share of the population from 7.7% in 2030 to 10.9% in 2100. The share of Western immigrants would rise from 5.7% to 9% over the same period.

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reasonably sober scenario

The ministry produced the figures at the request of Mikkel Bjørn, the Danish People’s Party’s immigration spokesman. It based the scenario on average net migration between 2019 and 2025, meaning immigration minus emigration.

The Finance Ministry stressed that the figures do not constitute a forecast. They do not account for possible changes in either immigration or emigration. Peter Fallesen, a research professor at the Rockwool Foundation, nevertheless described the calculation as a “reasonably sober scenario.” He cautioned that many factors could change, including migration in the opposite direction, noting that people from Poland have recently begun leaving Denmark. Fallesen also linked the projected decline in the share of people of Danish origin to a “fertility crisis” affecting several Western countries, including Denmark.

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We are, after all, trying to predict the future. There are many unknowns. And migration also goes in the other direction. For example, people from Poland have now started leaving.