Fitch says Vietnam banks likely to face significant pressure from government growth target

Vietnam's banking system is poised to face considerable pressure as the government pushes for ambitious double-digit economic growth by 2026, according to Fitch Ratings.

Banks are expected to be a key financier for the economy, but they remain vulnerable to external shocks, Fitch stated. Vietnam reported an 8.18 percent GDP growth in the first half of the year. To meet its 2026 target, second-quarter growth would need to reach at least 11.9 percent.

Fitch projects system loans to grow by approximately 18 percent in 2026, exceeding the central bank's 15 percent guidance. Rapid credit growth has outpaced deposit growth, leading to tighter liquidity and reduced net interest margins. This strains domestic banks' ability to meet high credit demand from businesses and individuals.

The agency forecasts Vietnam's GDP to rise by 6.8 percent in 2026 and 6.7 percent in 2027. Infrastructure development is identified as a primary growth driver, with the country increasing its infrastructure investment target to 7 percent of GDP last year.