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Former IDF officer: US has shifted from Iran nuclear deal to regime-collapse strategy

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • A former IDF officer and senior fellow, Or Horvitz, suggests the US has shifted its strategy on Iran from pursuing a nuclear deal to aiming for regime collapse.
  • Horvitz describes this as a return to a "maximum pressure" campaign, drawing parallels to Ronald Reagan's approach to the Soviet Union.
  • He warns that while the strategy aims for regime change, a cornered Iranian regime could become more prone to irrational actions, while also noting potential opportunities against its proxies like Hezbollah.

The ongoing, stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran may be masking a significant strategic shift by the United States, moving away from securing a deal towards actively promoting the collapse of the Iranian regime. This perspective comes from Or Horvitz, a senior fellow at JPPI and former IDF officer, speaking on The Deep Dive podcast.

Any negotiation with this regime is pointless.

— Or HorvitzExpressing skepticism about the effectiveness of current negotiations with Iran.

Horvitz argues that the US has quietly reverted to a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, a strategy he likens to Ronald Reagan's pivot from containment to confrontation with the Soviet Union. He contends that negotiating with the current Iranian leadership, which he characterizes as a hawkish "military junta," is futile due to their unwillingness to compromise on core interests like the Strait of Hormuz and their nuclear program.

the US has quietly returned to a "maximum pressure" campaign modeled on Ronald Reagan's pivot from containment to confrontation with the Soviet Union.

— Or HorvitzDescribing the alleged shift in US strategy towards Iran.

He points to a division within the US administration, with one faction favoring regime collapse and another still pursuing a negotiated outcome, but notes that both are currently aligned behind escalating economic pressure. Horvitz highlights Iran's severe economic challenges, including soaring inflation, which weakens the regime's position. However, he cautions that a desperate regime might resort to irrational or preemptive strikes against regional states or even NATO members.

a cornered, panicked Tehran also becomes more likely to launch an irrational or preemptive strike against Gulf states, Europe, or even NATO members.

— Or HorvitzWarning about the potential consequences of escalating pressure on Iran.

While Horvitz believes toppling the regime is a matter of time, he acknowledges it's not a certainty and draws parallels to the eight years it took for Reagan's approach to contribute to the Soviet Union's downfall. He also suggests the West missed an opportunity to support Iranian protesters earlier in the year. Horvitz sees Iran's economic vulnerability as creating a "historic" window to counter its proxy, Hezbollah, but warns of the potential empowerment of Sunni jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS if a vacuum emerges. He advises pragmatism in dealing with Syria and Turkey, advocating cooperation with Damascus and managing Ankara as a complex but distinct challenge from Iran.

Iran is a bully, and you cannot appease a bully.

— Or HorvitzConcluding with a cautionary remark on dealing with Iran, referencing Winston Churchill.
About this summary

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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