Former NSC adviser says Iran could face internal upheaval within months

Six to nine months of sustained economic pressure could push Iranians back into the streets, according to Brig. Gen. (res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel, a former Israeli national security adviser.

In an interview with 103FM, Nagel said the United States was pursuing economic pressure rather than immediately launching further strikes. He said Washington was seeking to weaken Tehran by targeting its main sources of revenue.

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The United States is a superpower that can almost do whatever it wants

“The United States is a superpower that can almost do whatever it wants,” Nagel said, describing the strategy as an effort to “choke Iran’s economy, but we will really choke Iran’s economy.” He acknowledged that Iran was still exporting fuel, although he questioned the accuracy of reported figures. “I do not believe the exact numbers, but let’s assume they are exporting half the amount of fuel they exported before the war. Instead of 20 million barrels, 10 million barrels, they are managing,” he said.

Nagel said fuel remains Iran’s main source of cash flow and that inflation is severe. “They are choking the Iranian economy, including their main source of cash flow, which is fuel that the Iranians are struggling to sell, and Iranian money is about to run out. Inflation is terrible,” he said.

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With six to nine months of this kind of pressure, I would bet that the people will return to the streets. They will not agree to be without electricity, without water.

He predicted that prolonged pressure could bring people back into the streets. “With six to nine months of this kind of pressure, I would bet that the people will return to the streets. They will not agree to be without electricity, without water.”

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When the public takes to the streets and rebels, either they are shot in the street, or they end up hanging from the gallows

At the same time, Nagel warned that any uprising would face the regime’s established methods of repression. “When the public takes to the streets and rebels, either they are shot in the street, or they end up hanging from the gallows,” he said. He added that even the Basij might eventually refuse to fight, saying, “I hope the Basij will join the people.”

Nagel said Iran still has enough power to retaliate against US allies including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar. He said advisers close to President Donald Trump had warned against attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure because of the consequences for regional allies and global oil prices.

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At this stage the Iranians still have enough power to respond.