France favored to win 2026 World Cup, says supercomputer analysis

France is the leading favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a supercomputer analysis by football statistics site Opta. The simulation gives France the highest probability of lifting the trophy at 27.32% among the eight quarterfinalist teams.

France has showcased a dominant offensive performance, scoring 14 goals in five matches, led by Kylian Mbappé with seven goals and Ousmane Dembélé with four. They advanced through the group stage with a perfect record and defeated Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32, followed by a 1-0 victory over Paraguay in the Round of 16.

Spain ranks second in the prediction with a 21.33% chance of winning. Considered a pre-tournament favorite, Spain has been a quietly strong contender, being the only team not to concede a single goal in their five matches leading up to the quarterfinals.

Defending champions Argentina, powered by Lionel Messi's tournament-leading eight goals, are third with a 17.28% probability. England follows closely at 16.48%. Other teams in the prediction include Norway (6.57%), Switzerland (3.78%), Morocco (3.66%), and Belgium (3.58%).