France Not Favored to Win 2026 World Cup, Opta Simulations Show

According to statistical analysis by Opta, the French national football team is not considered a favorite to win the 2026 World Cup. The renowned statistics provider's supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations, assigning France a mere 13% probability of lifting the trophy in the tournament co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico starting June 11.

Despite the odds, Didier Deschamps' squad is projected to perform well, with a 47% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and a 33% probability of advancing to the semifinals. However, the simulations place Spain at the forefront of potential champions, boasting a 16.1% chance of winning the title. England follows closely in third place with an 11.2% probability, and the reigning champions, Argentina, are credited with a 10.4% chance.

These four nations – Spain, France, England, and Argentina – are projected to significantly outperform the rest of the competing teams. Following this leading group, Portugal is given a 7% chance, Brazil 6.6%, Germany 5.1%, and the Netherlands 3.6%. Opta's analysis also suggests that France may not have the most favorable draw in its group, Group I.

Looking at African nations, Senegal is assigned a 1% chance of winning the World Cup, while Morocco, the surprise semi-finalists in 2022, have a 1.9% probability, ranking them 12th in the projections. The data highlights a clear hierarchy among the top contenders for the 2026 tournament.