From abundance to aridity — El Niño poses threat to SA’s summer grain crop

South Africa is moving from a season of abundance toward a summer planting season that could bring drought and heat. Eastern farming regions will begin planting yellow maize and soybeans in about a month, while some areas are still completing the delayed 2025-26 maize harvest.

The previous season ran roughly six weeks behind schedule because of rainy conditions at its start and an extended wet period at the end. By August 28, commercial silos had received about 14.4 million tonnes, below the expected 17.4 million tonnes. Crop quality, however, remained good.

The harvest has still been large enough to meet South Africa’s annual maize needs of 12 million tonnes and supply neighbouring countries. Decent stocks are also expected to carry into the new year. That period of ample supply is now giving way to a much less certain season.

The main concern is El Niño. Good soil moisture will support the beginning of the planting season, but conditions later on will depend on how strongly the phenomenon develops and whether South Africa experiences heatwaves similar to those recently seen in the Northern Hemisphere.

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The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean, and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer.

The South African Weather Service warned at the end of August that El Niño had strengthened and could reach a very strong state within the next few months, lasting at least through the end of the 2026-27 summer season. Its current signals point toward drier and warmer conditions.

“The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean, and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer,” the service said.

Spring could still bring favourable rainfall to eastern coastal areas and the eastern interior. Early summer, however, is expected to bring below-normal rainfall to significant areas, especially the central interior and far northeast. The eastern parts could receive above-normal rainfall early in summer, but the weather service cautioned that the forecast may change as El Niño develops.

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Predictions indicate that during spring, favourable rainfall conditions over the eastern coastal areas as well as the eastern interior could still be expected. However, as we move towards early summer, significant areas are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, especially in the central interior and the far northeast.