From Donbass to the Pacific: Threatened Democracies Begin to Learn from Each Other

Ukraine's effective defense against a larger adversary is prompting East Asian nations, especially China, to re-evaluate regional security dynamics. Many Chinese observers who initially anticipated a swift Russian victory are now reconsidering their stance. Some military experts within the People's Republic of China have publicly stated that the Kremlin is not clearly superior in a conventional war, citing Russia's inability to counter Ukraine's drone attacks.

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Many of the Chinese “Putin supporters,” who originally firmly believed in a Russian victory, have fallen silent. Not a few military experts of the People's Republic have even publicly stated that the Kremlin is no longer clearly superior in a conventional war; Russia cannot counter Ukraine's drone attacks sufficiently.

However, the primary concern for Chinese authorities is not Russia's fate but the potential spread of Ukrainian drone tactics to East Asia. Historically, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have relied on the security umbrella provided by the United States. This reliance is now being challenged as America encourages its Pacific allies to bolster their own defense spending and military forces.

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What is causing concern for the Chinese authorities today is less the fate of Russia and Putin's head. Rather, it is thought-provoking that Ukrainian drone tactics are beginning to spread in East Asia.

Relations between Japan and China have been strained since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated over a year ago that Japan could classify the use of military force in a Taiwan conflict, particularly involving warships, as an existential threat. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made the "liberation of Taiwan" a key objective, viewing any obstacle from neighboring countries as unacceptable. Consequently, China has exerted pressure on Tokyo through various means, including tourism and rare earth exports.

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America encourages its allies in the Pacific to increase defense spending and to take care of the buildup of their own armed forces. The countries of East Asia are now forced to think about how they can strengthen their defense capabilities.

Despite China's threats, Japan, recognized for its mature democracy and regional standing, remains undeterred. Tokyo has adapted its defense and arms export policies, enabling Southeast Asian nations to enhance their capabilities through Japanese arms. More significantly, Japan is actively developing its own weaponry, including drones. Taiwan, facing the most intense defense pressure in East Asia, is reportedly developing strategies and tactics similar to Ukraine's in response to China's military posturing. This situation suggests a growing trend of threatened democracies learning from each other's defense experiences.

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Since an statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi just over a year ago, relations between Japan and China have been in crisis. Takaichi said that the use of military force in a conflict over Taiwan, especially by warships, could be classified by Japan as an existential threat.