"Frozen Silk Road" is no longer just theory: China bypasses key maritime points in cooperation with Russia

China is set to launch a regular container shipping line through the Arctic, establishing a new maritime corridor between Asia and Europe. The initiative, dubbed the "Polar Silk Road" by the Chinese container shipping company "Sea Legend," will operate a weekly service between Ningbo, China, and Felixstowe, UK, utilizing the Northern Sea Route along Russia's Arctic coast.

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The route is currently entering its operational phase, with Sea Legend Shipping launching the first regular 'China-Europe Arctic Express' (CAX) service, using seven ships with capacities of 1,528–4,890 TEU. These ships will make eight weekly departures from Ningbo to Felixstowe by early October, with additional stops in Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven, and Gdansk.

This new route offers a significant advantage in transit time. Nenad Stekić, an associate professor at the Faculty of Security at the University of Belgrade, explained that the journey, which currently takes around 40 days via Suez or 50 days around the Cape of Good Hope, will be reduced to approximately 20 days. This makes it even faster than the China-Europe rail corridor, which takes about 25 days.

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The 40-day transit (Suez) or about 50 days (Cape of Good Hope) is reduced to about 20 days, which is even faster than the China-Europe rail corridor, taking about 25 days.

The development is largely driven by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in traditional maritime choke points. Recent events, such as the Suez Canal blockage in 2021 and attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, have highlighted the vulnerability of over-reliance on single routes. The "Polar Silk Road" emerges as a potential alternative, offering a way to bypass conflict zones and piracy-prone areas.

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The volume is, for now, more symbolic than substantive, as the total cargo volume through the Northern Sea Route is still negligible compared to Suez.

However, the Arctic route is not without its challenges. Stekić noted that the current cargo volume is symbolic rather than substantial, and the seasonal window for navigation (August-October) remains narrow, although a slight reduction in Arctic ice is slowly extending the sailing period. Furthermore, the route operates under Russian oversight, suggesting it will likely serve as a supplementary route rather than a complete replacement for the Suez Canal, especially given its seasonal nature.

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The seasonal navigation window (August-October) is still narrowly limited, although Arctic ice has decreased by 5.8% during the winter peak of 2024-2025, which is slowly extending the sailing period.