Gaza Mortality Survey validity challenged by Hebrew U. professor

A recent analysis published in The Lancet Global Health has cast doubt on the validity of the widely cited Gaza Mortality Survey, which reported approximately 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza since the Israel-Hamas War began on October 7, 2023.

Professor Emeritus Sergio DellaPergola of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and independent researcher Mark Zlochin published correspondence in the British medical journal, scrutinizing the survey's publicly available data. They contend that the population sample used by the survey researchers was inaccurate. Their analysis highlights that results from two specific interviewer teams, Gaza9 and Gaza3, are extreme outliers that significantly diverge from the data collected by other teams.

DellaPergola and Zlochin point out that Gaza9, for instance, reported about one-quarter of the violent deaths while surveying only eight percent of the total sample. Both Gaza9 and Gaza3 also exhibited different demographic structures compared to the remaining teams, including smaller populations of children and reduced mean household sizes. "Population-level mortality estimates are only as reliable as the representativeness of the underlying sample," DellaPergola stated. "Our analysis raises important questions regarding whether the survey achieved the level of representativeness necessary to support its national mortality estimates."

Further anomalies identified in the recorded data include survey teams covering only small portions of their assigned areas, discrepancies in estimates of Gazan prisoners, and a lack of quality-control procedures to catch these issues. The correspondence also notes The Lancet's history of publishing articles critical of Israel, including a recent petition to suspend the Israel Medical Association from the World Medical Association.

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Population-level mortality estimates are only as reliable as the representativeness of the underlying sample. Our analysis raises important questions regarding whether the survey achieved the level of representativeness necessary to support its national mortality estimates.