Gaza peace deals unravel due to lack of compliance checks

Peace deals for Gaza have repeatedly faltered because they fail to pre-establish who will certify compliance and adjudicate disputes, according to an analysis of four agreements reached in 2025. The University of Edinburgh’s Peace Agreement Database and Dataset highlights this critical gap in the Gaza ceasefire process.

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none have established, in advance, who certifies compliance.

The most detailed of these agreements, signed in January 2025, outlined specific numbers for hostage and prisoner exchanges, troop withdrawal routes, and the return of displaced families. However, it did not define the consequences of non-compliance or establish enforcement mechanisms. The guarantors, the US, Egypt, and Qatar, were tasked only with facilitating further negotiations, with the ability to log issues but not enforce the agreement. This weakness became apparent when the first phase of the deal stalled, leading Israel to resume bombing in March.

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The guarantors – the US, Egypt and Qatar – were asked only to work towards continued negotiation.

Two subsequent agreements in October 2025 attempted to rectify the situation. One established a coordination center in Israel run by US Central Command to monitor the ceasefire and aid distribution. Despite these efforts, aid workers and UN staff reported continued restrictions on aid and a lack of clarity regarding the future governance and security of Gaza. Another agreement, the "Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity," signed by the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, committed signatories to various goals but also seemingly overlooked the fundamental need for a robust enforcement framework.

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Aid workers and UN staff complained of continued aid restrictions and a lack of discussion over who would govern and secure Gaza.