German economist predicts Netherlands to win 2026 World Cup, South Korea to reach Round of 16

Joachim Klemenz, a German economist renowned for correctly predicting the winners of the last three FIFA World Cups, has identified the Netherlands as the favorite to win the 2026 North American tournament.

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The Netherlands is chosen as the favorite to win the North American World Cup.

Klemenz's predictive model incorporates a range of factors, including a nation's population size, GDP, average temperature, FIFA ranking, and recent international performance. His track record includes accurately forecasting Germany's victory in 2014, France's win in 2018, and Argentina's triumph in 2022.

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I am treated as a prophet because I have been lucky enough to be correct a few times.

According to Klemenz's analysis, the 2026 final will feature the Netherlands against Portugal, with the Dutch team securing their first-ever World Cup title. The Netherlands, currently ranked 7th by FIFA, has been on an impressive 14-game unbeaten streak (8 wins, 6 draws) since their last loss to Germany in October 2024.

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Honestly, the probability of being correct is 50%. The other half depends on luck.

Klemenz also highlighted a potential major upset: Japan defeating Brazil in the Round of 32. For the South Korean team, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, he anticipates a run to the Round of 16. However, Klemenz himself tempers expectations, stating that while he's been fortunate to be called a "prophet," his predictions have only a 50% chance of being correct, with the remaining half dependent on unpredictable variables like player condition on match day, referee decisions, and sheer luck.

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There are many unpredictable variables such as match-day condition, referee decisions, and bad luck with the goalposts.