German expert outlines three possible paths for AfD after Saxony-Anhalt election

The political future of Saxony-Anhalt could take one of three markedly different paths after Sunday’s state election, according to Mads Jedzini, a researcher at Think Tank Europe who specializes in German politics and society.

The final result was not yet known, but projections put the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, at 44% of the vote. The conservative CDU stood second with 18%. The immediate question was whether the AfD could secure an absolute majority, which would require 42 of the state parliament’s 83 seats.

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Murky result

So far, projections gave the AfD between 39 and 41 seats. The outcome could depend on whether smaller parties cross the electoral threshold, with the BSW party appearing close to the line.

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It is also not certain that the conservatives will have much appetite for it, because it is a bitter pill to swallow.

Jedzini described the result as “murky” and outlined three scenarios. The AfD could take power with help from BSW. Alternatively, all the other parties could join forces in what he called an awkward coalition that would be unlikely to remain sustainable over the long term. A third option would be a conservative-led minority government seeking support more flexibly from the other parties.

A broad coalition stretching from the conservatives to the far left would struggle to present a strong political project, Jedzini said. Conservatives might also resist such an arrangement, while its formation could strengthen the AfD’s claim that politics pits “us against them.” The other parties have rejected cooperation with the AfD under the so-called firewall policy, but a grand coalition excluding it could reopen debate inside the CDU about whether limited cooperation might be more practical in areas of agreement.

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It will confirm the narrative that it is us against them.