Germany’s Firewall Is Starting to Crack, Leaving Its Future Uncertain

The Alternative for Germany’s sweeping victory in Saxony has set off fresh alarms in Berlin and across Europe. Long-standing postwar taboos that once acted as democratic barriers are beginning to bend under the weight of political change.

The central questions, once dismissed outright, now look less hypothetical: could the far right eventually govern in Germany, and could another democratic party cooperate with an AfD-led government? For the first time since World War II, a party that Germany’s domestic intelligence agency had examined as far-right has dominated a state election by tens of percentage points over its nearest rival.

The result also marks a dramatic shift from the previous election in Saxony-Anhalt in June 2021. The Christian Democrats won 37.1%, the AfD 20.8%, the Left 11%, the Social Democrats 8.4%, the Free Democrats 6.4% and the Greens 5.9%.

By 2026, four and a half years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and four weeks after an incident involving a Russian drone at Leipzig airport, the AfD had more than doubled its share in Saxony to above 40%, while every other party except the Greens recorded losses. The article describes the AfD as pro-Russian and says the victory was particularly damaging to Ukraine and its supporters.

Many voters backed the AfD only a month after the Leipzig incident involving a drone carrying explosives. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic government had attributed the incident to Russia just days before the election and said Germany was facing “hybrid warfare.” At the time of writing, however, it remained unclear whether the AfD could form a single-party government in Saxony-Anhalt.

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