Germany: State Election Could Mark a Breakthrough for the Far Right

Saxony-Anhalt's election could reshape Germany's political landscape. The latest polls cited in the article put the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, above 40%, at least 15 points ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union.

That would make the AfD the leading party in a German state for the first time since World War II. Yet winning the most votes would not automatically bring it to power. All other parties reject cooperation with the AfD under the so-called Brandmauer, or protective firewall. Because of the proportional voting system, the party would need an absolute majority in the state parliament to govern alone, a difficult threshold to reach.

AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund has already raised questions about postal ballots and hinted at possible improper interference. The article says that raises the possibility that he could challenge the result.

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Pinocchio

Even without an AfD majority, forming a government would create serious problems for the CDU. The party rules out governing with Die Linke, which is expected to finish third. Unless the results bring a major surprise, the remaining option could be a fragile minority government involving the CDU and the likely fourth-place Social Democrats. Such a government would need support from the AfD at times and Die Linke at others to pass legislation.

Merz is already under pressure. His approval rating has fallen to 13%, described in the article as a historic low for a German chancellor 16 months into office. CDU candidates have avoided appearing with him. During his only appearance in Saxony-Anhalt, people booed him and called him "Pinocchio" and a "warmonger," prompting him to leave before making his planned comments to the press. Some CDU figures have begun privately discussing a rare Kanzlertausch, or replacing the chancellor through his own party, before the next federal election, scheduled for spring 2029.

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warmonger