Global Agricultural Income to Rise 9% by 2035 Amid Productivity Gains, FAO/OECD Report States

Global average gross agricultural income per worker is anticipated to increase by 9 percent by 2035, according to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This projected growth is attributed to gains in productivity and generally stable agricultural prices.

The report forecasts a steady rise in global cereal production, reaching an estimated 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035. This expansion will primarily stem from yield improvements, with an annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. In contrast, the land area dedicated to cereal cultivation is expected to grow by only 0.1 percent annually, a rate significantly slower than that observed in the previous decade.

Despite these positive projections, the report warns of potential risks. If the frequency of shocks experienced in recent years continues, there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 could fall below current levels. Short-term risks are also significant, with recent increases in energy prices and subsequent reductions in fertilizer use likely to impact agricultural production in 2027.

While high-income countries are expected to manage these shocks, the report highlights that low-income countries face a greater threat of deteriorating food security. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu emphasized the need to strengthen the resilience of agrifood systems. "Resilience is not about surviving the last shock; it is about preparing for the next one," he stated, advocating for investments in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves of critical agricultural inputs, resilient infrastructure, and a more varied energy mix to reduce dependence on oil. Such measures, he believes, can transform vulnerability into preparedness and prevent temporary disruptions from escalating into food security crises.

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Resilience is not about surviving the last shock; it is about preparing for the next one.