Global Air Passenger Demand Fell 2.2% in May Due to Middle East Crisis

Global air passenger demand experienced a 2.2% decrease in May compared to the previous year, primarily attributed to disruptions stemming from the Middle East crisis. This downturn affected both domestic and international travel, with carriers in the Middle East reporting a significant year-on-year fall of 28.4%. Despite this substantial decline, it represents an improvement from the 46.6% decrease recorded in April, indicating some resilience in the region's aviation market.

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Air passenger demand was down 2.2 percent year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was cantered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4 percent year-on-year fall.

In contrast to the global trend, African airlines recorded a robust 8.9% increase in passenger demand, accompanied by an 8.3% rise in capacity. The load factor for African carriers stood at 73.4%, a slight increase from the previous year. Globally, excluding the Middle East, passenger demand actually grew by 0.7%, with total capacity decreasing by 2.3%. The global load factor achieved a record high for May at 83.5%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from May 2025.

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That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6 percent decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience.

International passenger demand worldwide declined by 1.6%, but when the Middle East is excluded, demand increased by 3.1%. Domestic demand globally also saw a healthy 3.1% growth. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted the resilience of the market despite high fuel prices and airfares. He indicated that while the recent drop in oil prices is a positive sign, the conflict's effects will likely continue to influence jet fuel pricing. Airlines, operating on slim profit margins, may need to maintain higher fares to offset these elevated costs.

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Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares.

Walsh pointed out that the Middle East's aviation market constitutes about 6% to 10% of global international air travel and approximately 6% of worldwide passenger capacity. Its share of international traffic is higher, around 10%, due to longer routes and larger aircraft. Uncertainty surrounding oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant concern for the industry.

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While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time.