Global Heating Will Reach at Least 1.8C, UN Warns, with ‘No Good Outcomes’

The world is heading for at least 1.8C of global heating even under the most optimistic future scenario, according to a United Nations report that says exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target has become unavoidable.

The UN Environment Programme report says the temporary breach is likely to occur within the next few years. It links the warming trajectory to the continuing human-caused climate crisis, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, while acknowledging progress in efforts to address it.

The report warns that each additional fraction of warming will intensify destructive extreme weather, accelerate glacier melt and deepen ecosystem loss. It also highlights the risk of islands and coastal cities being submerged.

Scientists nevertheless say the world could bring temperatures back down to 1.5C. That would require deep and rapid cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, combined with removing carbon from the atmosphere. The report’s warning is that even such action would come after an overshoot, leaving no good outcomes as warming rises beyond the Paris goal.