Global nuclear risk rising as arms control weakens, Sipri warns

The world faces an escalating nuclear risk as strategic arms control systems falter and rivalry intensifies among nuclear-armed powers, warns the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). Researchers highlight a worrying trend: nuclear-armed states are increasingly moving weapons out of stockpiles and deploying them on launch platforms, significantly heightening global instability.

Sipri estimates that the world's nuclear powers possess approximately 12,187 warheads, with about 9,745 held in reserve for potential use. Although this represents a slight decrease from the previous year, largely due to the dismantling of older warheads post-Cold War, the overall danger associated with these weapons is on the rise. Karim Haggag, director of Sipri, stated that even as the number of weapons decreases, the level of nuclear danger is increasing.

This downward trend in warhead numbers is expected to reverse in the coming years. Sipri forecasts that the pace of dismantling is slowing while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating. This shift, coupled with the erosion of international arms control agreements and heightened geopolitical tensions, paints a concerning picture for global security.

Both the United States and Russia hold roughly 83% of the world's nuclear arsenals, each possessing over 5,000 warheads. Both nations are engaged in modernizing their nuclear capabilities, though both face challenges. The U.S. program is progressing but encounters planning and funding difficulties that could lead to delays and increased costs, while Russia's program has been hampered by failed intercontinental ballistic missile tests. The deployment of more weapons on delivery systems, rather than keeping them in reserve, is a key concern driving the increased risk.